11
Cy Twombly
4yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 53
Southwell · Weekend Winners On At The Races Handicap · 1m 14y
#13
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength38%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 7.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-09-08 | Leicester | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Southwell | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 148% of fieldRange 7-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength16%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/12/2025 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 30/01/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/06/2026 | 9th | 200/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 18/06/2026 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 21/07/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 30/07/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 26/08/2026 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 9% | -0.17 |
| 08/09/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/09/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |