Danrana
3yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 58
Southwell · Weekend Winners On At The Races Handicap · 1m 14y
#11
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 7.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Carlisle | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Doncaster | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Chester | 4 | 10th | 8th | +2 |
| 2025-08-24 | Beverley | 4 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2025-07-23 | Catterick | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 24/08/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 42% | +0.05 |
| 30/05/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 01/08/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 19/08/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 13% | +0.07 |