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Hear The Drums

3yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 55

Southwell · Weekend Winners On At The Races Handicap · 1m 14y

#2

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

18%

Place Prob

29%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Resumed winning ways over C&D in August and backed it up off 4 lb higher with a solid third of 10 in 1m handicap at Newcastle 22 days ago. Can't be dismissed.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength47%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 6.8)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Thirsk 15/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR - · 6f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS15/0844 @ Ripon 25/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 6f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS6 @ Newcastle 30/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 55 · 7f14y Std 130 · beat its mark30/09/2025 · OR 55 par30/096OR 556 @ Leicester 28/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 51 · 7f Sft 131 · beat its mark28/10/2025 · OR 51 par6 @ Redcar 20/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 56 · 7f219y Goo 131 · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 56 par20/046OR 566 @ Catterick 21/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 55 · 7f6y Goo 135 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Beverley 16/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 53 · 7f96y Goo 127 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 53 par16/066OR 536 @ Southwell 06/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 51 · 1m14y Std 131 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 51 par6 @ Newcastle 02/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 55 · 1m5y Std 131 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 55 par2/096OR 55projClass-projected finish: 4th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Newcastle63rd3rd0
2026-08-06Southwell61st1st0
2026-06-16Beverley67th7th0
2026-05-21Catterick68th8th0
2026-04-20Redcar610th10th0
2025-10-28Leicester61st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0828/1016/062/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength67%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/08/20258th40/10%50%+0.50
25/08/20258th11/142%13%-0.30
30/09/20259th11/142%33%-0.09
28/10/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
20/04/202610th8/158%18%-0.40
21/05/20268th7/163%30%-0.33
16/06/20267th22/10%54%+0.54
06/08/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
02/09/20263rd9/276%78%+0.01