12
Mercurius Power
8yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 52
Southwell · Weekend Winners On At The Races Handicap · 1m 14y
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Newcastle | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Newcastle | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Doncaster | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Newcastle | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Leicester | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-13 | Newcastle | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength62%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 82% | +0.34 |
| 11/02/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 13/03/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 38% | -0.05 |
| 13/04/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 09/05/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 02/06/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 42% | -0.27 |
| 14/06/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 76% | +0.76 |
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 91% | +0.25 |
| 02/09/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 56% | -0.31 |