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3

Renewable Dream

4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 56

Southwell · Weekend Winners On At The Races Handicap · 1m 14y

#9

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Remains a maiden but turned in his best effort of the season for new yard with third of 9 in 7f handicap at Wolverhampton (form is working out really well) last time. Merits serious consideration with this return to 1m also a likely plus.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength39%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Haydock 09/08/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 68 · 7f37y Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/08/2025 · OR 68 par9/085OR 685 @ Doncaster 16/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 66 · 7f213y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/08/2025 · OR 66 par5 @ Redcar 16/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 68 · 7f219y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/09/2025 · OR 68 par16/095OR 685 @ Newmarket 25/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 68 · 1m Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/09/2025 · OR 68 par5 @ Newcastle 29/12/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 67 · 1m5y Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/12/2025 · OR 67 par29/125OR 676 @ Wolverhampton 26/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 65 · 7f36y Std 135 · below its mark26/01/2026 · OR 65 par6 @ Doncaster 18/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 62 · 7f6y GF 133 · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 62 par18/076OR 626 @ Carlisle 19/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 59 · 6f195y Goo 137 · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Wolverhampton 01/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 56 · 7f36y Std 131 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 56 par1/096OR 56projClass-projected finish: 8th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-01Wolverhampton63rd3rd0
2026-08-19Carlisle63rd3rd0
2026-07-18Doncaster68th8th0
2026-01-26Wolverhampton69th9th0
2025-12-29Newcastle512th11th+1
2025-09-25Newmarket59th8th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0825/0918/071/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength74%

Delivery trend -1.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/08/20259th16/116%27%+0.11
16/08/20253rd20/10%67%+0.67
16/09/20253rd11/142%80%+0.38
25/09/20259th14/126%27%+0.01
29/12/202512th11/142%0%-0.42
26/01/20269th20/10%20%+0.20
18/07/20268th14/126%0%-0.26
19/08/20263rd15/261%78%+0.17
01/09/20263rd16/116%75%+0.59