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Roccapina

3yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 60

Southwell · Weekend Winners On At The Races Handicap · 1m 14y

#8

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Advertise filly. Well held on debut for Martyn Meade but much better signs for new yard when in the frame in novices at Ripon (1m) and Newcastle (7f) this summer. Open to improvement now going handicapping back at 1m.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength71%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Windsor 22/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 1m31y GF 121 · HIGHER CLASS22/0654 @ Ripon 27/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR - · 1m Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS27/0744 @ Newcastle 20/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 7f14y Std 121 · HIGHER CLASS20/084projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 14
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-20Newcastle43rd1st+2
2026-07-27Ripon44th2nd+2
2026-06-22Windsor56th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0627/0720/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +18.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/06/20266th40/10%38%+0.38
27/07/20264th66/10%25%+0.25
20/08/20263rd22/10%75%+0.75