Soames Forsyte
7yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 58
Southwell · Weekend Winners On At The Races Handicap · 1m 14y
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Southwell | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Southwell | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Pontefract | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Carlisle | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Southwell | 5 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Southwell | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/02/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 30% | -0.07 |
| 10/03/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 73% | +0.25 |
| 05/04/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 43% | -0.12 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 56% | +0.08 |
| 07/05/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 10% | -0.06 |
| 15/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 05/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 31/08/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 17/09/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 45% | +0.40 |