9
Southern Warrior
3yo Colt · 9-5 · OR 58
Southwell · Weekend Winners On At The Races Handicap · 1m 14y
#12
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength54%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Southwell | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-08-16 | Southwell | 6 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Nottingham | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Sandown | 5 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Newmarket | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-30 | Kempton | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 8-14 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength19%
Delivery trend +4.2% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 11th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/01/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 43% | -0.23 |
| 25/02/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 21/03/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 30/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 50% | -0.44 |
| 15/05/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 12/06/2026 | 10th | 150/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/07/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/08/2026 | 13th | 100/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 03/09/2026 | 8th | 150/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |