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10

Starakova

3yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 58

Southwell · Weekend Winners On At The Races Handicap · 1m 14y

#1

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

81%

Place Prob

62%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winner at Wolverhampton (7f) in April and doubled her tally in 8-runner handicap over C&D last month when overcoming a pace bias. Up 4 lb can go well again with Billy Loughnane taking over.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Sandown 25/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 5f10y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS25/0755 @ Nottingham 07/08/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 59 · 6f18y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/08/2025 · OR 59 par6 @ Southwell 23/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 56 · 6f16y Std 131 · beat its mark23/09/2025 · OR 56 par23/096OR 566 @ Chelmsford City 12/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 53 · 7f Std 133 · beat its mark12/03/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Leicester 13/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 17 · OR 51 · 7f Gd 126 · beat its mark13/04/2026 · OR 51 par13/046OR 516 @ Wolverhampton 27/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 49 · 7f36y Std 129 · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Windsor 08/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 55 · 1m31y Goo 135 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 55 par8/066OR 556 @ Wolverhampton 06/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 55 · 1m142y Std 128 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Southwell 06/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 54 · 1m14y Std 134 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 54 par6/086OR 54projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-06Southwell61st1st0
2026-07-06Wolverhampton63rd3rd0
2026-06-08Windsor67th7th0
2026-04-27Wolverhampton61st1st0
2026-04-13Leicester610th10th0
2026-03-12Chelmsford City65th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0712/038/066/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +0.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/07/20254th50/10%40%+0.40
07/08/20259th20/10%0%0.00
23/09/20258th12/137%42%+0.05
12/03/20265th20/10%60%+0.60
13/04/202610th14/126%44%+0.17
27/04/20261st14/126%100%+0.74
08/06/20267th11/142%45%+0.03
06/07/20263rd10/147%83%+0.36
06/08/20261st10/382%100%+0.18