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10

Amantha

2yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 60

Southwell · Follow AtTheRaces On X Nursery · 7f 15y

#2

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

10%

Place Prob

18%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Consistent type who doubled her tally in 7f Redcar seller in August. Failed to get home in the mud when fourth of 9 in nursery at Beverley (7f) since and no surprise to see her bounce back on tapeta debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength72%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Beverley 27/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 7f96y Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS27/0544 @ Musselburgh 05/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 7f15y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS3 @ Musselburgh 22/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 7f15y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS22/0636 @ Beverley 04/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 59 · 7f96y Goo 135 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Musselburgh 31/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 62 · 7f15y Gd 133 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 62 par31/076OR 625 @ Musselburgh 07/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 62 · 7f15y Gd 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Beverley 13/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 62 · 7f75y Goo 134 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 62 par13/086OR 625 @ Redcar 22/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 60 · 7f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Beverley 30/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 61 · 7f75y Hvy 132 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 61 par30/086OR 61projClass-projected finish: 4th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Beverley64th4th0
2026-08-22Redcar51st0th+1
2026-08-13Beverley65th5th0
2026-08-07Musselburgh53rd2nd+1
2026-07-31Musselburgh63rd3rd0
2026-07-04Beverley62nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/054/0713/0830/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 8-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength17%

Delivery trend -4.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/05/20266th80/10%29%+0.29
05/06/20266th25/10%0%0.00
22/06/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
04/07/20262nd2/189%75%-0.14
31/07/20263rd9/276%67%-0.10
07/08/20263rd4/179%50%-0.29
13/08/20265th9/276%56%-0.21
22/08/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
30/08/20264th13/266%63%-0.03