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11

Claret And Blues

2yo Colt · 9-3 · OR 59

Southwell · Follow AtTheRaces On X Nursery · 7f 15y

#4

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Yet to score but arrives in good nick, doing best of those held up when third of 16 in nursery at Thirsk (6f, good) 10 days ago. A likely player off the same mark with this step up to 7f also a plus.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength61%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Pontefract 21/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 5f3y Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS21/0455 @ Southwell 07/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 4f214y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS7/0554 @ Chester 30/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 6f17y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS30/0546 @ Pontefract 07/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 64 · 6f Goo 134 · below its mark07/07/2026 · OR 64 par7/076OR 646 @ Thirsk 24/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 61 · 6f Goo 131 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 61 par24/076OR 616 @ Thirsk 14/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 59 · 6f Goo 129 · beat its mark14/09/2026 · OR 59 par14/096OR 59projClass-projected finish: 5th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Thirsk63rd3rd0
2026-07-24Thirsk65th5th0
2026-07-07Pontefract66th6th0
2026-05-30Chester46th4th+2
2026-05-07Southwell53rd2nd+1
2026-04-21Pontefract55th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/047/0530/057/0724/0714/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +13.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/04/20265th5/174%43%-0.31
07/05/20263rd11/486%60%-0.26
30/05/20266th40/10%55%+0.55
07/07/20266th11/142%29%-0.14
24/07/20265th12/137%64%+0.27
14/09/20263rd11/142%87%+0.45