Crowned
2yo Colt · 10-1 · OR 65
Southwell · Follow AtTheRaces On X Nursery · 7f 15y
#1
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
86%
Place Prob
53%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 2.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Southwell | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Windsor | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Brighton | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Kempton | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Nottingham | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Windsor | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/06/2026 | 3rd | 80/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 25/06/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 57% | -0.28 |
| 05/08/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 56% | -0.34 |
| 23/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 29/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 90% | -0.06 |
| 17/09/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |