14
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2yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 56
Southwell · Follow AtTheRaces On X Nursery · 7f 15y
#10
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#10
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength68%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Newcastle | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Musselburgh | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Thirsk | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Musselburgh | 3 | 2nd | -2th | +3 |
| 2026-06-13 | Chester | 4 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-05-26 | Redcar | 4 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 8-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -12.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 22/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 24/07/2026 | 11th | 4/1 | 79% | 9% | -0.70 |
| 31/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 02/09/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |