6
Enpassant
5yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 66
Southwell · Download The At The Races App Handicap (Div 1) · 7f 15y
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Newcastle | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Doncaster | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Lingfield | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Leicester | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Southwell | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-04-15 | Southwell | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +10.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/02/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 25/02/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 9% | -0.07 |
| 13/03/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 15/04/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 23/04/2026 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 25% | -0.63 |
| 09/05/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 26/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |