1

Feel The Need

6yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 70

Southwell · Download The At The Races App Handicap (Div 1) · 7f 15y

#4

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Not easy to win with lately but returned to form when second of 13 at Doncaster in Leger Legends race over 1m 13 days ago. Drops back to 7f and has never been in a lower grade than this before so he's well capable of taking a hand if things drop right.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength60%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newcastle 28/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 77 · 1m5y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/09/2025 · OR 77 par28/094OR 774 @ York 10/10/2025 · Pos 16th of 21 · OR 77 · 7f Gd 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/10/2025 · OR 77 par4 @ Doncaster 25/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR 75 · 7f6y Hvy 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 75 par25/104OR 754 @ Southwell 23/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 73 · 7f14y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/01/2026 · OR 73 par4 @ York 23/05/2026 · Pos 21st of 22 · OR 74 · 7f Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 74 par23/054OR 744 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 20 · OR 73 · 7f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 73 par4 @ Southwell 27/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 71 · 7f14y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 71 par27/074OR 715 @ Newcastle 05/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 70 · 7f14y Std 135 · below its mark05/09/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Doncaster 11/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 68 · 1m Goo 161 · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 68 par11/095OR 68projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Doncaster52nd2nd0
2026-09-05Newcastle57th7th0
2026-07-27Southwell46th5th+1
2026-06-12York413th12th+1
2026-05-23York421th20th+1
2026-01-23Southwell42nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0923/0127/0711/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength92%

Delivery trend +1.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/09/20254th12/137%75%+0.38
10/10/202516th11/142%25%-0.17
25/10/202511th14/126%29%+0.02
23/01/20262nd7/282%86%+0.04
23/05/202621st16/116%5%-0.11
12/06/202613th14/126%37%+0.11
27/07/20266th12/137%44%+0.08
05/09/20267th10/382%14%-0.68
11/09/20262nd20/10%92%+0.92