IvyArcIvyArc
3

Profit Street

5yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 67

Southwell · Download The At The Races App Handicap (Div 1) · 7f 15y

#8

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 3 times on all-weather at Lingfield for James Owen this year and largely consistent afterwards barring a blip there on turf when last seen making stable debut in May. Will be suited by this return to all-weather but needs to be at top of his game returning from 129 days off without usual visor.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Southwell 30/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 56 · 6f16y Std 126 · beat its mark30/01/2026 · OR 56 par30/016OR 566 @ Lingfield 10/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 55 · 7f1y Std 135 · beat its mark10/02/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Lingfield 25/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 58 · 6f1y Std 132 · beat its mark25/02/2026 · OR 58 par25/026OR 586 @ Lingfield 28/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 58 · 7f1y Std 128 · beat its mark28/02/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Lingfield 05/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 58 · 7f1y Std 135 · beat its mark05/03/2026 · OR 58 par5/036OR 585 @ Lingfield 20/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 68 · 7f1y Std 133 · beat its mark20/03/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Lingfield 25/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 68 · 6f1y Std 133 · beat its mark25/03/2026 · OR 68 par25/035OR 685 @ Lingfield 14/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 69 · 7f1y Std 134 · beat its mark14/04/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Lingfield 18/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 68 · 6f Goo 129 · below its mark18/05/2026 · OR 68 par18/055OR 68projClass-projected finish: 6th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-18Lingfield57th7th0
2026-04-14Lingfield55th5th0
2026-03-25Lingfield53rd3rd0
2026-03-20Lingfield52nd2nd0
2026-03-05Lingfield61st2nd−1
2026-02-28Lingfield61st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0128/0225/0318/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 8-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -8.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/01/20264th10/147%70%+0.23
10/02/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
25/02/20262nd9/488%83%-0.05
28/02/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
05/03/20261st4/696%100%+0.04
20/03/20262nd2/189%89%-0.01
25/03/20263rd6/594%82%-0.12
14/04/20265th5/287%60%-0.27
18/05/20267th6/168%0%-0.68