Thapa VC
8yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 70
Southwell · Download The At The Races App Handicap (Div 1) · 7f 15y
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
31%
Place Prob
31%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Lingfield | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Doncaster | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Yarmouth | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Doncaster | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Kempton | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Bath | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 78% | -0.09 |
| 01/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 70% | -0.14 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 90% | +0.01 |
| 08/07/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 56% | -0.26 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 28/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 15/08/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 36% | -0.06 |
| 25/08/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 38% | +0.32 |