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9

Bad Habits

4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 56

Southwell · Download The At The Races App Handicap (Div 2) · 7f 15y

#6

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Largely consistent on all-weather earlier this year, eventually scoring at Wolverhampton in April. Now returns from 139 days off in better company so needs to be at the top of his game.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 06/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 53 · 7f36y Std 133 · beat its mark06/02/2026 · OR 53 par6/026OR 536 @ Wolverhampton 16/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 53 · 7f36y Std 133 · beat its mark16/02/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Wolverhampton 23/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 53 · 7f36y Std 133 · beat its mark23/02/2026 · OR 53 par23/026OR 536 @ Wolverhampton 13/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 53 · 7f36y Std 128 · beat its mark13/03/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Wolverhampton 23/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 52 · 7f36y Std 132 · beat its mark23/03/2026 · OR 52 par23/036OR 526 @ Southwell 28/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 52 · 7f15y Std 127 · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Wolverhampton 10/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 53 · 7f36y Std 123 · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 53 par10/046OR 536 @ Wolverhampton 21/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 53 · 7f36y Std 133 · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Wolverhampton 08/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 56 · 7f36y Std 131 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 56 par8/056OR 56projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-08Wolverhampton63rd4th−1
2026-04-21Wolverhampton61st2nd−1
2026-04-10Wolverhampton69th10th−1
2026-03-28Southwell62nd3rd−1
2026-03-23Wolverhampton62nd3rd−1
2026-03-13Wolverhampton67th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0213/0310/048/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/02/20262nd5/174%90%+0.16
16/02/20264th6/492%67%-0.25
23/02/20264th5/174%67%-0.07
13/03/20267th9/153%14%-0.38
23/03/20262nd7/163%88%+0.24
28/03/20262nd9/153%91%+0.38
10/04/20269th6/168%27%-0.41
21/04/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
08/05/20263rd18/15%75%+0.70