Hectic
6yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 66
Southwell · Download The At The Races App Handicap (Div 2) · 7f 15y
#8
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 5.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Southwell | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Southwell | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Chester | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-08 | Pontefract | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Ascot | 4 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/03/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 26/03/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 21/04/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 09/05/2026 | 14th | 33/1 | 0% | 24% | +0.24 |
| 08/06/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 12/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 06/08/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |
| 17/08/2026 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 11% | -0.68 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 82% | +0.40 |