8
Norfolk Blue
3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 67
Southwell · Download The At The Races App Handicap (Div 2) · 7f 15y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength42%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Brighton | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Haydock | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Sandown | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Ffos Las | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Doncaster | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Windsor | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength44%
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08/2025 | 14th | 66/1 | 0% | 24% | +0.24 |
| 18/09/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 30/04/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 67% | +0.11 |
| 14/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 93% | +0.14 |
| 29/06/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 24/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 08/08/2026 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 43% | -0.47 |
| 01/09/2026 | 1st | 4/11 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |