Shaw Park
7yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 65
Southwell · Download The At The Races App Handicap (Div 2) · 7f 15y
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
84%
Place Prob
55%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Brighton | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-03-11 | Southwell | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Southwell | 4 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-02-05 | Southwell | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-30 | Southwell | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 22/05/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 31/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 30/01/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 05/02/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 28/02/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 11/03/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 13% | -0.51 |
| 18/08/2026 | 4th | 125/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |