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Show Me Gold

3yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 68

Southwell · Download The At The Races App Handicap (Div 2) · 7f 15y

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Broke duck at Kempton on all-weather in June and ran a cracker when second at Newmarket in August. Showed speed when respectable fourth at Newbury on latest outing and holds claims back down in grade and returned to all-weather.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength52%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 30/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 7f36y Std 12430/1254 @ Kempton 28/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR - · 7f 120 · HIGHER CLASS28/0144 @ Lingfield 06/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 7f135y Sft 124 · HIGHER CLASS6/0645 @ Kempton 29/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 63 · 7f Sta 126 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 63 par29/065OR 635 @ Wolverhampton 17/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 67 · 7f36y Std 132 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 67 par17/075OR 675 @ Newmarket 07/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 67 · 7f GF 128 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 67 par7/085OR 674 @ Newbury 26/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 69 · 7f GF 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 69 par26/084OR 69projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-26Newbury44th3rd+1
2026-08-07Newmarket52nd2nd0
2026-07-17Wolverhampton59th9th0
2026-06-29Kempton51st1st0
2026-06-06Lingfield44th3rd+1
2026-01-28Kempton42nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/1229/0626/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength72%

Delivery trend -6.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/12/20252nd9/153%80%+0.27
28/01/20262nd12/137%92%+0.55
06/06/20264th17/255%73%+0.17
29/06/20261st18/15%100%+0.95
17/07/20269th10/147%20%-0.27
07/08/20262nd22/10%83%+0.83
26/08/20264th4/179%40%-0.39