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Tasdeed

5yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 69

Southwell · Download The At The Races App Handicap (Div 2) · 7f 15y

#5

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed a lot more when fourth of 14 dropped to this level in a handicap on return from 5 months off at Kempton 15 days ago, keeping on. Perhaps ideally needs 1m but could go well if stepping up on that effort.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength47%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 17/09/2024 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 7f14y Sta 13317/0955 @ Kempton 14/10/2024 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 1m Sta 1375 @ Kempton 06/11/2024 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 85 · 1m Sta 137 · below its mark06/11/2024 · OR 85 par6/115OR 853 @ Kempton 18/12/2024 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 85 · 1m Sta 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/12/2024 · OR 85 par4 @ Kempton 08/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 82 · 7f Sta 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/10/2025 · OR 82 par8/104OR 824 @ Wolverhampton 13/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 79 · 1m142y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/03/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Kempton 06/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 75 · 1m Sta 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/04/2026 · OR 75 par6/044OR 755 @ Kempton 09/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 70 · 7f Sta 138 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 70 par9/095OR 70projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Kempton54th4th0
2026-04-06Kempton48th7th+1
2026-03-13Wolverhampton47th6th+1
2025-10-08Kempton410th9th+1
2024-12-18Kempton312th10th+2
2024-11-06Kempton53rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0918/126/049/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength62%

Delivery trend -4.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/09/20241st18/15%100%+0.95
14/10/20244th40/10%73%+0.73
06/11/20243rd2/1399%60%-0.39
18/12/202412th33/10%0%0.00
08/10/202510th50/10%31%+0.31
13/03/20267th11/142%0%-0.42
06/04/20268th50/10%13%+0.13
09/09/20264th40/10%77%+0.77