2
Believeinmenow
3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 68
Southwell · Free Tips On attheraces.com Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 4f 215y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Newcastle | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Newcastle | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Redcar | 5 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-06-02 | Pontefract | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Doncaster | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-05-04 | Beverley | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength69%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 63% | -0.06 |
| 05/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 63% | -0.06 |
| 23/04/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |
| 04/05/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 92% | +0.77 |
| 16/05/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 14% | -0.65 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/5 | 83% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 19/06/2026 | 9th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 31/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 73% | -0.01 |
| 05/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 92% | +0.40 |