3
Qila
3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 70
Southwell · Free Tips On attheraces.com Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 4f 215y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/4
Win Prob
25%
Place Prob
35%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Beverley | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Beverley | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-07 | Thirsk | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-09 | Carlisle | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Newcastle | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-18 | Pontefract | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength100%
Delivery trend -4.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09/2025 | 5th | 100/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 18/09/2025 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 19/05/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 09/06/2026 | 10th | 17/2 | 55% | 10% | -0.45 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 12/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 16/09/2026 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |