2
Elvetham
4yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 70
Southwell · Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Handicap · 4f 215y
#6
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Lingfield | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-13 | Lingfield | 6 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-08-04 | Lingfield | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-30 | Epsom Downs | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Leicester | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Newmarket | 5 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength36%
Delivery trend -8.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 78% | +0.15 |
| 10/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 19/06/2026 | 12th | 8/1 | 58% | 27% | -0.31 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 30/07/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 04/08/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 13/08/2026 | 10th | 7/2 | 82% | 18% | -0.63 |
| 01/09/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |