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7

Guernsey Angel

3yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 64

Southwell · Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Handicap · 4f 215y

#2

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#2

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Is yet to add to a pair of 5f nursery wins (one over C&D) last year and has been well below par at Windsor and Salisbury on her last 2 runs. Mark is falling but still needs to step forward.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Southwell 23/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 76 · 4f214y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/01/2026 · OR 76 par23/014OR 765 @ Lingfield 12/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 75 · 5f6y Std 135 · beat its mark12/02/2026 · OR 75 par5 @ Wolverhampton 13/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 74 · 5f21y Std 134 · beat its mark13/03/2026 · OR 74 par13/035OR 744 @ Bath 27/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 73 · 5f10y Fm 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 73 par5 @ Haydock 21/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 71 · 6f Sft 131 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 71 par21/055OR 715 @ Leicester 04/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 69 · 6f GF 135 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Windsor 27/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 70 · 6f12y GF 135 · below its mark27/07/2026 · OR 70 par27/075OR 705 @ Windsor 13/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 68 · 6f12y GF 135 · below its mark13/08/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Salisbury 11/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 66 · 6f Sft 131 · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 66 par11/095OR 66projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Salisbury57th7th0
2026-08-13Windsor510th10th0
2026-07-27Windsor55th5th0
2026-07-04Leicester52nd2nd0
2026-05-21Haydock56th6th0
2026-04-27Bath46th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0127/0427/0711/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength22%

Delivery trend +1.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/01/20266th10/147%17%-0.31
12/02/20264th12/137%50%+0.13
13/03/20265th3/184%50%-0.34
27/04/20266th12/137%38%+0.01
21/05/20266th12/137%50%+0.13
04/07/20262nd15/261%90%+0.29
27/07/20265th9/488%20%-0.68
13/08/202610th13/266%10%-0.56
11/09/20267th20/10%45%+0.45