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3

Isle Of Lismore

8yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 69

Southwell · Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Handicap · 4f 215y

#5

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Capitalised on a falling mark when ending a losing run at Ffos Las (5f) in June. Has twice failed to back it up after a break though, only seventh of 9 in handicap at Sandown (5f, soft) 13 days ago. Yard also has Fiorella Princess in here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength67%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Newmarket 17/04/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 79 · 5f Gd 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/04/2025 · OR 79 par17/043OR 794 @ Ascot 30/04/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 78 · 5f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/04/2025 · OR 78 par4 @ Chelmsford City 01/06/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 76 · 5f Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/06/2025 · OR 76 par1/064OR 764 @ Lingfield 08/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 73 · 4f217y Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/07/2025 · OR 73 par4 @ Haydock 21/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 73 · 5f Sft 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 73 par21/054OR 735 @ Catterick 11/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 70 · 5f GS 131 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Ffos Las 23/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 68 · 5f Gd 131 · beat its mark23/06/2026 · OR 68 par23/065OR 685 @ Lingfield 27/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 71 · 5f6y Std 134 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 71 par5 @ Sandown 11/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 70 · 5f10y Sft 134 · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 70 par11/095OR 70projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Sandown57th7th0
2026-08-27Lingfield53rd3rd0
2026-06-23Ffos Las51st1st0
2026-06-11Catterick54th4th0
2026-05-21Haydock45th4th+1
2025-07-08Lingfield43rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/048/0723/0611/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength28%

Delivery trend +3.2% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/04/20254th7/282%63%-0.19
30/04/20258th15/261%13%-0.48
01/06/20258th13/266%30%-0.36
08/07/20253rd10/147%67%+0.19
21/05/20265th11/142%20%-0.22
11/06/20264th6/168%50%-0.18
23/06/20261st6/594%100%+0.06
27/08/20263rd14/126%60%+0.34
11/09/20267th6/168%25%-0.43