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7

Affection

3yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 73

Southwell · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Fillies' Handicap · 1m 3f 24y

#11

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Four-time winner in France but no progress since switching to this country despite an easing mark and she needs first-time cheekpieces to work the oracle.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength52%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Cagnes-sur-Mer 19/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 1m1f207y Std 13119/01C?2 @ Cagnes-sur-Mer 21/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 1m1f207y Std 122 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Lyon La Soie 11/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 1m2f151y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS11/03C5C5 @ Salon-De-Provence 16/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 1m3f204y GS 132 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Salisbury 09/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 82 · 1m1f201y Sft 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 82 par9/064OR 824 @ Newton Abbot 23/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR - · 2m167y Goo 149 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Nottingham 30/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 80 · 1m2f50y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/07/2026 · OR 80 par30/074OR 804 @ Kempton 26/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 77 · 1m3f219y Sta 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 77 par5 @ Lingfield 12/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 75 · 1m4f1y Std 135 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 75 par12/095OR 75projClass-projected finish: 11th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Lingfield56th6th0
2026-08-26Kempton46th5th+1
2026-07-30Nottingham44th3rd+1
2026-06-23Newton Abbot42nd1st+1
2026-06-09Salisbury43rd2nd+1
2026-04-16Salon-De-Provence?1st0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0116/0430/0712/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 3-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength41%

Delivery trend +6.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/01/20263rd5/174%75%+0.01
21/02/20267th5/174%25%-0.49
11/03/20261st1/195%100%+0.05
16/04/20261st8/1397%100%+0.03
09/06/20263rd33/10%67%+0.67
23/06/20262nd3/184%50%-0.34
30/07/20264th40/10%25%+0.25
26/08/20266th66/10%29%+0.29
12/09/20266th33/10%38%+0.38