IvyArcIvyArc
8

Emma's Letter

3yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 72

Southwell · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Fillies' Handicap · 1m 3f 24y

#1

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

95%

Place Prob

61%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Two wins from 3 starts since being dropped to 1¼m so obviously in good heart but she now needs to prove herself well suited by this step back up in trip after a 4 lb rise in the weights.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 26/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 68 · 1m5y Std 126 · beat its mark26/11/2025 · OR 68 par26/115OR 685 @ Wolverhampton 08/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 68 · 1m142y Std 135 · beat its mark08/12/2025 · OR 68 par5 @ Southwell 19/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 67 · 1m13y Std 133 · beat its mark19/12/2025 · OR 67 par19/125OR 674 @ Southwell 28/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 70 · 1m13y Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/12/2025 · OR 70 par5 @ Leicester 13/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 69 · 1m3f179y Gd 132 · beat its mark13/04/2026 · OR 69 par13/045OR 695 @ Windsor 11/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 67 · 1m3f99y Goo 122 · below its mark11/05/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Nottingham 02/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 65 · 1m2f50y Goo 133 · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 65 par2/075OR 655 @ Lingfield 22/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 68 · 1m2f GF 127 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Newmarket 21/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 68 · 1m2f Goo 133 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 68 par21/085OR 68projClass-projected finish: 6th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21Newmarket51st1st0
2026-07-22Lingfield53rd3rd0
2026-07-02Nottingham51st1st0
2026-05-11Windsor59th9th0
2026-04-13Leicester53rd3rd0
2025-12-28Southwell44th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/1128/122/0721/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength78%

Delivery trend +0.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/11/20251st10/382%100%+0.18
08/12/20252nd5/287%80%-0.07
19/12/20252nd4/179%88%+0.09
28/12/20254th17/255%0%-0.55
13/04/20263rd11/271%33%-0.38
11/05/20269th20/10%11%+0.11
02/07/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
22/07/20263rd11/486%33%-0.52
21/08/20261st11/486%100%+0.14