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10

Guesstimate

3yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 72

Southwell · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Fillies' Handicap · 1m 3f 24y

#2

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Off the mark at Nottingham in July and produced good second of 9 in a handicap at Lingfield on all-weather in August. Raced too freely when last at Newbury last time out but had previously looked likely to stay this far so she's well capable of bouncing back for top yard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength78%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newmarket 22/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 7f Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS22/1042 @ Kempton 19/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR - · 1m Sta 126 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Kempton 06/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 1m Sta 127 · HIGHER CLASS6/0445 @ Wolverhampton 05/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 70 · 1m142y Std 126 · beat its mark05/05/2026 · OR 70 par2 @ Goodwood 23/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 69 · 1m1f197y Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 69 par23/052OR 694 @ Redcar 19/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 72 · 1m2f1y Gd 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Nottingham 17/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 70 · 1m2f50y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 70 par17/074OR 704 @ Lingfield 11/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 72 · 1m2f Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Newbury 26/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 73 · 1m2f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/08/2026 · OR 73 par26/084OR 73projClass-projected finish: 8th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-26Newbury47th6th+1
2026-08-11Lingfield42nd1st+1
2026-07-17Nottingham41st0th+1
2026-06-19Redcar45th4th+1
2026-05-23Goodwood23rd-1th+3
2026-05-05Wolverhampton53rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/105/0517/0726/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 4-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength23%

Delivery trend -2.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/10/20253rd10/147%80%+0.33
19/11/20252nd5/174%92%+0.18
06/04/202610th2/189%0%-0.89
05/05/20263rd15/261%60%-0.01
23/05/20263rd9/276%71%-0.05
19/06/20265th11/271%50%-0.21
17/07/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
11/08/20262nd8/158%88%+0.30
26/08/20267th7/163%0%-0.63