Lucy The Wire
4yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 66
Southwell · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Fillies' Handicap · 1m 3f 24y
#7
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Southwell | 3 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-08-19 | Kempton | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Windsor | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-07-19 | Stratford | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Worcester | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Stratford | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.2% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/12/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 08/03/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 23/03/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |
| 29/06/2026 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 46% | -0.33 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 19/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 67% | -0.24 |
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 19/08/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 73% | -0.01 |
| 03/09/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |