6
Melody De Vega
3yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 73
Southwell · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Fillies' Handicap · 1m 3f 24y
#8
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Sandown | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Leicester | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Ripon | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Salisbury | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Kempton | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Kempton | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 8-14 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength14%
Delivery trend -6.4% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 06/10/2025 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 28/10/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 30/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 06/05/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 23/05/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 36% | -0.00 |
| 17/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 29/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |