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Midnight Media

3yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 64

Southwell · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Fillies' Handicap · 1m 3f 24y

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Thriving up to 1¼m in handicaps, winning in July and August before a couple of good seconds at Wolverhampton this month. This is a deeper race but she looks sure to go well again if lasting out this extra distance.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 06/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 1m Sta 125 · HIGHER CLASS6/0445 @ Wolverhampton 05/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 62 · 1m142y Std 124 · beat its mark05/05/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Windsor 23/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 60 · 1m3f99y GF 135 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 60 par23/056OR 604 @ Wolverhampton 28/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 55 · 1m1f104y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Wolverhampton 06/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 55 · 1m142y Std 128 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 55 par6/076OR 556 @ Chepstow 24/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 59 · 1m2f GF 132 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Nottingham 11/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 60 · 1m2f50y Goo 130 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 60 par11/086OR 605 @ Wolverhampton 01/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 63 · 1m1f105y Std 130 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 63 par6 @ Wolverhampton 07/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 63 · 1m1f104y Std 134 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 63 par7/096OR 63projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Wolverhampton62nd3rd−1
2026-09-01Wolverhampton52nd2nd0
2026-08-11Nottingham61st2nd−1
2026-07-24Chepstow62nd3rd−1
2026-07-06Wolverhampton61st2nd−1
2026-06-28Wolverhampton42nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0428/0611/087/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength62%

Delivery trend -5.6% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/04/20269th33/10%11%+0.11
05/05/20264th66/10%40%+0.40
23/05/20269th40/10%38%+0.38
28/06/20262nd22/10%90%+0.90
06/07/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
24/07/20262nd3/184%88%+0.03
11/08/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
01/09/20262nd11/893%89%-0.04
07/09/20262nd8/1196%90%-0.06