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3

Pomme Pomme

4yo Filly · 9-13 · OR 72

Southwell · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Fillies' Handicap · 1m 3f 24y

#9

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winless since June last year when she completed a 5-timer. Underwhelming so far this year and now steps up in trip with cheekpieces applied so has something to answer.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength58%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Haydock 21/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 72 · 1m2f100y Gd 139 · beat its mark21/06/2025 · OR 72 par21/065OR 725 @ Hamilton 26/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 72 · 1m3f15y Gd 141 · beat its mark26/06/2025 · OR 72 par4 @ Doncaster 23/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 80 · 1m2f43y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/07/2025 · OR 80 par23/074OR 804 @ Hamilton 22/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR 80 · 1m1f35y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2025 · OR 80 par4 @ Ripon 16/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 80 · 1m1f170y GS 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/04/2026 · OR 80 par16/044OR 804 @ Windsor 13/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 80 · 1m2f Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 80 par3 @ Pontefract 26/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 79 · 1m2f5y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/07/2026 · OR 79 par26/073OR 794 @ Lingfield 22/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 77 · 1m2f Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Haydock 03/09/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 75 · 1m2f42y Sft 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/09/2026 · OR 75 par3/094OR 75projClass-projected finish: 13th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Haydock412th11th+1
2026-08-22Lingfield47th6th+1
2026-07-26Pontefract33rd1st+2
2026-07-13Windsor45th4th+1
2026-04-16Ripon49th8th+1
2025-08-22Hamilton42nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0622/0826/073/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 8-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength10%

Delivery trend +4.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/06/20251st11/893%100%+0.07
26/06/20253rd10/1195%33%-0.62
23/07/20255th10/147%0%-0.47
22/08/20252nd4/179%50%-0.29
16/04/20269th12/137%11%-0.26
13/07/20265th28/10%33%+0.33
26/07/20263rd7/163%50%-0.13
22/08/20267th25/10%25%+0.25
03/09/202612th14/126%8%-0.18