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Rose Cotton

4yo Filly · 10-1 · OR 74

Southwell · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Fillies' Handicap · 1m 3f 24y

#12

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#12

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Better on all-weather and holds claims on her third of 9 at Wolverhampton in July. Below par on turf last month but return to this surface will suit.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Goodwood 24/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 1m1f197y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS24/0525 @ Windsor 28/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 1m2f Goo 1285 @ Yarmouth 06/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 1m3y Goo 1286/1055 @ Wolverhampton 27/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 69 · 1m1f104y Std 136 · beat its mark27/01/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Wolverhampton 23/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 75 · 1m1f104y Std 135 · beat its mark23/03/2026 · OR 75 par23/035OR 755 @ Lingfield 20/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 75 · 1m4f1y Std 135 · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 75 par5 @ Newbury 15/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 75 · 1m4f Gd 135 · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 75 par15/055OR 755 @ Wolverhampton 14/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 74 · 1m4f51y Std 142 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 74 par5 @ Yarmouth 30/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 74 · 1m2f23y GS 135 · below its mark30/08/2026 · OR 74 par30/085OR 74projClass-projected finish: 10th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Yarmouth56th6th0
2026-07-14Wolverhampton53rd3rd0
2026-05-15Newbury57th7th0
2026-04-20Lingfield52nd2nd0
2026-03-23Wolverhampton52nd2nd0
2026-01-27Wolverhampton51st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0527/0115/0530/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 10-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -6.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/05/20256th18/15%50%+0.45
28/07/20253rd5/174%50%-0.24
06/10/20257th33/10%25%+0.25
27/01/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
23/03/20262nd8/1196%75%-0.21
20/04/20262nd9/488%80%-0.08
15/05/20267th7/163%57%-0.06
14/07/20263rd7/282%75%-0.07
30/08/20266th9/276%29%-0.48