2
Bearwith
8yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 69
Southwell · attheraces.com/marketmovers Selling Handicap · 1m 3f 24y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Beverley | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Southwell | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Beverley | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Newcastle | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Leicester | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Ripon | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength46%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/2026 | 11th | 11/2 | 71% | 23% | -0.48 |
| 18/04/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 92% | +0.66 |
| 29/04/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 17/05/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 70% | -0.09 |
| 13/06/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 25/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 12/08/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 86% | +0.30 |
| 31/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 16/09/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |