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5

Freddy Robinson

7yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 58

Southwell · attheraces.com/marketmovers Selling Handicap · 1m 3f 24y

#5

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Second 3 times at Beverley in the spring and fourth of 10 there in a handicap 8 days ago, contesting a higher grade than necessary but keeping on. Places claims back on all-weather.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength49%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 20/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 62 · 1m4f14y Std 129 · beat its mark20/11/2025 · OR 62 par20/115OR 624 @ Market Rasen 04/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 110 · 2m125y GS 168 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/12/2025 · OR 110 par5 @ Newcastle 06/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 60 · 1m4f98y Std 123 · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 60 par6/035OR 606 @ Beverley 15/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 58 · 1m4f23y Goo 133 · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 58 par5 @ Beverley 23/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 58 · 1m4f23y Goo 123 · beat its mark23/04/2026 · OR 58 par23/045OR 586 @ Beverley 04/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 57 · 1m4f23y Goo 134 · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Beverley 27/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 58 · 1m4f23y Goo 135 · beat its mark27/05/2026 · OR 58 par27/056OR 584 @ Hexham 06/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 113 · 2m48y Gd 168 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/06/2026 · OR 113 par5 @ Beverley 16/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 58 · 1m1f207y Goo 123 · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 58 par16/095OR 58projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Beverley54th4th0
2026-06-06Hexham45th4th+1
2026-05-27Beverley62nd3rd−1
2026-05-04Beverley62nd3rd−1
2026-04-23Beverley52nd2nd0
2026-04-15Beverley64th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/1115/0427/0516/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength55%

Delivery trend -3.3% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/11/20257th33/10%40%+0.40
04/12/20251st7/163%100%+0.37
06/03/20266th14/126%17%-0.10
15/04/20264th4/179%73%-0.06
23/04/20262nd9/276%83%+0.07
04/05/20262nd11/893%83%-0.09
27/05/20262nd13/891%80%-0.11
06/06/20265th9/276%20%-0.56
16/09/20264th18/15%67%+0.61