7
Lord Mayor
3yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 60
Southwell · attheraces.com/marketmovers Selling Handicap · 1m 3f 24y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Kempton | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-10 | Newcastle | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-01-17 | Lingfield | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-17 | Lingfield | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-02 | Lingfield | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-11-19 | Kempton | 2 | 12th | 8th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength21%
Delivery trend -12.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/11/2025 | 12th | 22/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 02/12/2025 | 9th | 125/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 17/12/2025 | 3rd | 80/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 17/01/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 10/02/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 26/08/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |