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Takeitorleaveit

3yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 65

Southwell · attheraces.com/marketmovers Selling Handicap · 1m 3f 24y

#3

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has finished out of the first 2 only twice in 9 starts this year, including when winning at Nottingham in July. Good second of 10 in a handicap at Salisbury 13 days ago and looks sure to go well again if proving effectiveness on all-weather.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength23%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Bath 27/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 56 · 1m Fm 131 · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 56 par27/046OR 566 @ Windsor 25/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 58 · 1m31y GF 134 · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 58 par5 @ Lingfield 06/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 58 · 1m1f Sft 123 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 58 par6/065OR 586 @ Windsor 22/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 58 · 1m31y GF 133 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Epsom Downs 09/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 58 · 1m2f17y GF 128 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 58 par9/076OR 586 @ Nottingham 21/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 59 · 1m1f Goo 130 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Windsor 27/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 59 · 1m2f GF 140 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 59 par27/076OR 596 @ Ffos Las 27/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 65 · 1m2f Gd 135 · below its mark27/08/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Salisbury 11/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 65 · 1m1f201y Sft 130 · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 65 par11/095OR 65projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Salisbury52nd2nd0
2026-08-27Ffos Las68th9th−1
2026-07-27Windsor62nd3rd−1
2026-07-21Nottingham61st2nd−1
2026-07-09Epsom Downs62nd3rd−1
2026-06-22Windsor62nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0422/0627/0711/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength64%

Delivery trend -1.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/04/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
25/05/20267th11/486%54%-0.32
06/06/20262nd9/276%83%+0.07
22/06/20262nd4/179%89%+0.10
09/07/20262nd7/491%83%-0.07
21/07/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
27/07/20262nd9/488%83%-0.05
27/08/20268th4/179%13%-0.66
11/09/20262nd11/271%89%+0.18