4
Bourbon N Blush
3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 48
Thistledown · Race 1 - Allowance · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-23 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-02 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-09-19 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength51%
Delivery trend +12.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 02/10/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 23/10/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 04/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 13/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |