3
Buckeye Bombshell
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 77
Thistledown · Race 1 - Allowance · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Fair Grounds | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-02-13 | Fair Grounds | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-01-15 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-08-14 | Colonial Downs | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength66%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 17/07/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 14/08/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 13% | -0.40 |
| 15/01/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 13/02/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 13/03/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 63% | +0.02 |
| 15/05/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 24/08/2026 | 4th | 10/11 | 95% | 40% | -0.55 |