2
Catpuccino
3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 57
Thistledown · Race 1 - Allowance · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
78%
Place Prob
60%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-15 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength59%
Delivery trend -8.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 45% | -0.02 |
| 15/10/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 17/08/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 07/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 60% | -0.32 |