6
Dollar Dance
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 44
Thistledown · Race 1 - Allowance · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-17 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-11 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-01 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength37%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/02/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 02/03/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 18/03/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.08 |
| 01/04/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 70% | +0.23 |
| 11/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 28/05/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 20/06/2026 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 13% | -0.66 |
| 17/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 31/08/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |