7
Golden Haul
3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 50
Thistledown · Race 1 - Allowance · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-13 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +10.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/11/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 22/12/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 22/04/2026 | 7th | 13/8 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 20/06/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 29/06/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 13/07/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 24/08/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 07/09/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |