5
Kiddie Cocktail
3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 52
Thistledown · Race 1 - Allowance · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
21%
Place Prob
31%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 8th | −4 |
| 2025-12-22 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-11-19 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-10-23 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength75%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 02/10/2025 | 3rd | 8/11 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 23/10/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 19/11/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 22/12/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 40% | -0.48 |
| 09/07/2026 | 4th | 11/10 | 94% | 50% | -0.44 |
| 29/07/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 07/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |