General Mathis
9yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 90
Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.1 /10 (raw 2.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-06-07 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-09-11 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07/2025 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 14/07/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 14/08/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 64% | -0.05 |
| 11/09/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 25/10/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/06/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 20/07/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 19/08/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 02/09/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |