2
This Time
5yo Horse · 8-7 · OR 92
Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength73%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: +2.1
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-02-19 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-01-22 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2026-01-01 | Fair Grounds | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-10-15 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07/2024 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 08/04/2025 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 25% | -0.65 |
| 04/08/2025 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 15/10/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 01/01/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 22/01/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 19/02/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 83% | -0.10 |
| 29/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 24/08/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |