4

Who Da Boss

5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 84

Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move1
Strength57%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 2.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Mahoning Valley 02/12/2024 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 87 · 1m Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/12/2024 · OR 87 par2/12C5OR 87C5 @ Thistledown 08/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 92 · 1m Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/07/2025 · OR 92 parC8 @ Thistledown 12/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 91 · 6f 119 · below its mark12/09/2025 · OR 91 par12/09C8OR 91C5 @ Mahoning Valley 20/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 84 · 1m70y 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/11/2025 · OR 84 parC5 @ Mahoning Valley 13/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 85 · 1m Slo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/01/2026 · OR 85 par13/01C5OR 85C5 @ Mahoning Valley 11/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 83 · 1m Slo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/03/2026 · OR 83 parC8 @ Thistledown 11/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 86 · 1m 119 · below its mark11/06/2026 · OR 86 par11/06C8OR 86C8 @ Thistledown 30/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 84 · 1m 119 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 84 parC8 @ Thistledown 02/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 85 · 1m 119 · below its mark02/09/2026 · OR 85 par2/09C8OR 85projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Thistledown?3rd3rd0
2026-06-30Thistledown?1st1st0
2026-06-11Thistledown?4th4th0
2026-03-11Mahoning Valley?5th2nd+3
2026-01-13Mahoning Valley?4th1st+3
2025-11-20Mahoning Valley?3rd0th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/1220/1111/062/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength36%

Delivery trend -1.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/12/20241st11/1094%100%+0.06
08/07/20253rd9/276%71%-0.05
12/09/20254th3/184%0%-0.84
20/11/20253rd10/382%60%-0.22
13/01/20264th10/382%40%-0.42
11/03/20265th5/174%0%-0.74
11/06/20264th5/174%40%-0.34
30/06/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
02/09/20263rd11/486%50%-0.36