4
Coloryoureggs
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 72
Thistledown · Race 3 - Allowance · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength42%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2025-11-13 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2025-10-13 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength69%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08/2025 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 03/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 25/09/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 13/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 86% | -0.09 |
| 13/11/2025 | 12th | 14/1 | 26% | 8% | -0.18 |
| 01/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |
| 29/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 25/08/2026 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 57% | -0.34 |